Money Pound Traders Set Brexit Bets as Key Summit Comes Into Play

18:45  19 july  2017
18:45  19 july  2017 Source:   bloomberg.com

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What will Brexit look like in three months’ time? Pound traders are trying to figure it out. Wednesday marks three months until a key European leaders meeting that could shape the final divorce. 1-4 in Manchester, when simmering resentments may come to a head, just two weeks before the EU summit .

Pound traders are trying to figure it out. Wednesday marks three months until a key European leaders meeting that could shape the final divorce. 19-20 summit for the first time. Traders need to gauge how a German election, three months of talks and political feuds in the U.K. will change the Brexit

BC-POUND-VOLATILITY-BREXIT © Anooja Debnath and Alex Morales BC-POUND-VOLATILITY-BREXIT

What will Brexit look like in three months’ time? Pound traders are trying to figure it out.

Wednesday marks three months until a key European leaders meeting that could shape the final divorce. That means benchmark three-month sterling volatility will start to cover the Oct. 19-20 summit for the first time. Traders need to gauge how a German election, three months of talks and political feuds in the U.K. will change the Brexit outlook by then.

With discussions resuming in Brussels this week, the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said “sufficient progress” needs to be made on the terms of the separation before discussing a future trade relationship. It’s up to EU leaders to decide whether that progress has been made, as the clock ticks down to the March 2019 deadline for Britain’s exit.

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How will this play out in th Millions of traders from around the world seek out DailyFX for up-to-date forex alerts, news and analysis. Brexit : John Lewis and Siemens warn government - Продолжительность: 4:44 Financial Times 15 469 просмотров.

The pound -dollar pair was trading under pressure near the level of 1.3260. Theresa May is scheduled to visit Brussels where the EU summit will be held. The main purpose of her visit is the Brexit .

“The market is leaning toward a firm no deal and a hard Brexit fallout scenario,” said Neil Jones, the head of hedge fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London, adding that a change of mood before the summit would benefit those going long on volatility. “The vol move could be quite violent on a soft Brexit.”

Three-month implied volatility, a measure of pound price swings based on options, has declined this year to about 7.85 percent, a far cry from the 18.56 percent reached on June 14 last year, days before the EU referendum. Given market positioning, if the talks lead to a shift toward a smoother split or closer trading ties, it could shoot through 10 percent and trade at 15, Jones said.

It will also factor in risk events such as two Bank of England policy meets and Germany’s federal elections in September. Polls suggest Chancellor Angela Merkel will win a fourth term but the make-up of her coalition, and what stance it could take on Brexit, remains unclear.

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Cabinet members continue to disagree over post- Brexit customs arrangements between the UK and the EU, with minister set to hold an away day at Chequers to debate the future of trade and the Irish border ahead of the summit . A spokesman for Mrs May said the Prime Minister believed t

The European Union summit due to take place this week is seen as crucial to the pounds direction and all eyes will be on Prime Minister Theresa May and what type of deal she can negotiate to keep the Please, take into account that trading on the forex market isn’t suitable for all investors and traders .

May’s Challenges

The U.K.’s inconclusive election in June has spurred talk of a more conciliatory approach by Prime Minister Theresa May. The U.K. acknowledged last week for the first time in writing that it will have to pay money to leave the EU, one of the thorniest issues in the talks.

May, meanwhile, will face her own set of domestic challenges that could swing the pound. After a summer recess ending Sept. 5, Parliament will debate her bill to transpose all existing EU legislation into U.K. law. When it was introduced to the House of Commons on July 13, it sparked a backlash from opposition parties including Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who said they would seek to amend it.

She’s likely to have even greater difficulties in the upper chamber, the House of Lords, where she doesn’t have a majority. As if that wasn’t enough, consent for the bill is required from the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly. The semi-autonomous Scottish and Welsh governments have already said they’d oppose it, with Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her Welsh counterpart Carwyn Jones calling it a “naked power-grab.”

And to cap it all, prominent members of her own party have suggested her days are numbered, after she frittered away an overwhelming lead in the polls before the election and ended up losing seats. To stay in power, the premier must navigate her Conservative Party’s annual conference which runs Oct. 1-4 in Manchester, when simmering resentments may come to a head, just two weeks before the EU summit.

“It could prove a significant event for the pound,” said Lee Hardman, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “It would be reasonable for the market to price in the higher event risk.”


Deutsche Bank Is Said to Weigh Moving $350 Billion to Frankfurt .
Deutsche Bank AG may shift about 300 billion euros ($350 billion) from the balance sheet of its U.K. entity to Frankfurt as client trading and assets migrate to the continent following Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, according to a person familiar with the matter. The project, dubbed Bowline, calls for Frankfurt trading to go live in September 2018 and for the balance sheet migration to be completed by March 2019, said the person, who asked for anonymity in discussing internal matters.Monika Schaller, a spokeswoman for Deutsche Bank, declined to comment.

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