Money A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think

18:50  20 march  2017
18:50  20 march  2017 Source:   The Financial Times

Michel Barnier: No Brexit Deal 'Distinct Possibility'

  Michel Barnier: No Brexit Deal 'Distinct Possibility' Barnier warned the remaining 27 members of the E.U. would find it easier to cope with the fallout from such a scenario. “The 27 member states will find it easier to adjust—as they will still benefit from the single market, the customs union and more than 60 trade deals with their international partners,” Barnier wrote.Economists have warned about the impact of leaving without a deal in place for a future relationship with the bloc, as it could mean large tariffs and significant non-tariff barriers immediately erected between Britain and the bloc.Barnier also cautioned Britain against seeking to divide the remaining E.

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . We know there are many factors that might contribute to unwind the talks but I think there is a good constructive view on the whole,” he added.

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . The EU should not seek to earn a quick buck, nor the UK to dodge direct costs.

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

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More than 70 MPs accuse the BBC of bias in its Brexit coverage

  More than 70 MPs accuse the BBC of bias in its Brexit coverage A group of more than 70 MPs have published a letter to the BBC’s director general attacking the broadcaster’s Brexit coverage. “It particularly pains us to see how so much of the good economic news we’ve has since [the] June [referendum] has been skewed by BBC coverage which seems unable to break out of pre-referendum pessimism,” the letter says.Most of the letter’s signatories are Conservative MPs. They are joined by Labour MPs Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins and Graham Stringer, along with eight MPs from the DUP, Ukip’s Douglas Carswell, and four Lords.

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . Now, she says the ball is in Mrs May’s court. “I set out the timeframe in which I think it would be fair and reasonable,” Ms Sturgeon told ITV on Sunday.

Most Read. A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . The process will be far more complicated than many realise — it will not be a mere switch of labels, from EU to UK law.

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The debate about Brexit is largely informed by confirmation bias. If you are a Brexiter, you are likely to ignore any information that leaving the EU would be bad for the economy, or that the negotiations are going to be fiendishly difficult. If you are a Remainer, you keep doubling down with exaggerated warnings about economic doom. You may also say the EU will deny Britain a decent exit deal. You will do so because you are angry, or because you are already looking forward to your moment of sweet revenge — when you can say: “I told you so”. And there are still some people who hope — or fear — that the whole thing can still be undone. It cannot.

Related: Article 50 to be triggered on 29 March

The reality of the great Brexit battles ahead is that they are comparatively boring. After Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Brexit, which is expected to happen next week, the UK will be out of the EU by July 2019 at the latest, possibly few months earlier. And, contrary to the warnings I keep hearing, I believe that the chances of an exit deal under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union are not all that bad.

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  Brexit could cause 'irreparable harm' to Britain's economy, Dutch PM warns Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has questioned British optimism that leaving the EU will lead to a brighter future, saying the UK could be in for "potentially irreparable harm".Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has questioned British optimism that leaving the EU will lead to a brighter future, saying the UK could be in for "potentially irreparable harm".

Most Read. A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . The central bank held steady on rates last week and signalled that it will probably keep rates at just 0.5 per cent for even longer than previously forecast.

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British Prime Minister Theresa May gestures as she delivers her address to delegates at the Conservative Party Spring Conference in Cardiff, south Wales, on March 17, 2017.British Prime Minister Theresa May will seek to rally her party faithful Friday after a week in which her political honeymoon abruptly ended, laying bare her weaknesses over Brexit. / AFP PHOTO / BEN STANSALLBEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images: British Prime Minister Theresa May gestures as she delivers her address to delegates at the Conservative Party Spring Conference in Cardiff, south Wales, on March 17, 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May will seek to rally her party faithful Friday after a week in which her political honeymoon abruptly ended, laying bare her weaknesses over Brexit. / AFP PHOTO / BEN STANSALLBEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images© AFP British Prime Minister Theresa May gestures as she delivers her address to delegates at the Conservative Party Spring Conference in Cardiff, south Wales, on March 17, 2017. British Prime Minister Theresa May will seek to rally her party faithful Friday after a week in which her political honeymoon abruptly ended, laying bare her weaknesses over Brexit. / AFP PHOTO / BEN STANSALLBEN STANSALL/AFP/Getty Images

Of course, it is not that hard to think of a scenario in which a British politician walks out of these negotiations huffing and puffing after a provocation. The biggest issue will be money. It always is. Margaret Thatcher wanted her money back during the 1980s. For several years the EU did almost nothing but sort out the British rebate — or “discount”, as the Germans appropriately called it. This was as bitter a conflict as any I can recall. But, eventually, they reached a deal. They always do.

Brexit Bill granted royal assent giving PM power to trigger Article 50

  Brexit Bill granted royal assent giving PM power to trigger Article 50 Theresa May has been given the legal power to start Brexit talks after the Queen granted royal assent to the Article 50 Bill. Speaker John Bercow told MPs that the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill, which was passed by MPs and peers on Monday, had received its final sign off, prompting cheers from the Conservative benches.Mrs May has said she will invoke Article 50, the legal mechanism for withdrawal from the EU, by the end of the month in what will be a "defining moment" for the country.

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . In 2001, Russia accounted for around 10 per cent of global aluminium production, slightly less than China.

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . Britain’s ambassador to the EU has said it is “time to get on” with the country’s Brexit negotiations as the prime minister has said she will trigger the Article 50 process on March 29.

Related: EU chief Juncker: We'll make an example of Britain that no-one will want to follow

The fight over the UK exit bill should not be as difficult. There is talk, unconfirmed, about €60bn. This is financially not in the same league as the great fights of the past. The problem about the exit bill is lack of legal basis and precedent. The treaties are silent; there is no rule book.

The problems are solvable as long as both sides adhere to a simple principle: that Brexit should be an opportunity neither for the EU to earn a quick buck, nor for the UK to dodge the direct costs to the union that will result from its decision.

While it is only fair for the UK to pay for the costs of Brexit, it would not be fair for the EU to extract a price for market access. Fortunately, there is an ample choice of numbers between zero and 60bn.

There are 18 months for the two sides to discuss the details of the Article 50 exit procedure. This will not include a trade deal, only the terms of the divorce. Separately, the EU and the UK will negotiate an interim arrangement that would remain in place until a final trade pact is negotiated and ratified. The interim agreement would take effect after Brexit takes legal force.

Brexit Bill granted royal assent giving PM power to trigger Article 50

  Brexit Bill granted royal assent giving PM power to trigger Article 50 Theresa May has been given the legal power to start Brexit talks after the Queen granted royal assent to the Article 50 Bill. Speaker John Bercow told MPs that the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill, which was passed by MPs and peers on Monday, had received its final sign off, prompting cheers from the Conservative benches.Mrs May has said she will invoke Article 50, the legal mechanism for withdrawal from the EU, by the end of the month in what will be a "defining moment" for the country.

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . Downing Street has been anxious in recent months to counter the risk that significant Brexit announcements are inevitably accompanied by falls in sterling.

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think . “In this environment, being long some wings is probably a good idea,” he added, referring to options that pay out if markets become extremely stressed.

It would be reckless to predict that all will go smoothly. On the contrary; this will be as bitter and hard fought as any of the big battles of the past. What I do see, however, is that both sides have more to lose than to gain. This matters more than the observation that the UK has relatively more to lose than the EU. That is trivially true, but not critical. Far more important is that the UK is an integral part of the supply chains of the European car industry — even more so now after the sale of Vauxhall and Opel to Peugeot of France. The car industry will find a way to live with Brexit. But it cannot cope with sudden rupture.

So, next time you hear someone say the EU is in a stronger negotiating position, just remember that whoever makes this sort of statement is not mindful of these industrial supply chains and other close linkages between the UK and the EU: in security and defence co-operation, and economic policy co-ordination at the level of the G7 or the G20 groups of the richest and most-developed nations. The UK will not magically disappear after Brexit.

So what about the ultimate argument — that the EU needs to punish the UK to set a disincentive for others to leave? This is complete piffle. I am unable to find a single country that would even come close. The country most isolated in the EU is Poland, but its electorate remains overwhelmingly in favour of EU membership. The Nordic countries may have lost their erstwhile enthusiasm for European integration, but none is anywhere near considering exit. Last week’s Dutch elections ended any fears, or hopes, of Nexit. A euro exit is another matter. But there is no queue of countries about to leave the EU. The situation may change if France votes for Marine Le Pen, but I somehow do not think that is going to happen.

Every political process is prone to accidents. But I am really struggling to identify a single insurmountable obstacle to a deal. My advice, especially for angry Remain supporters, is to take a deep breath, accept that Brexit will happen and focus on how to reconnect with the EU after Brexit. There is much to play for.

munchau@eurointelligence.com

Queen to give royal assent to Article 50 Bill on Thursday .
The Queen will sign the Article 50 Bill into law on Thursday, clearing the way for Theresa May to formally start talks to leave the European Union. The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill was passed by MPs and peers on Monday, with royal assent the final stage in the process.It will then be open to the Prime Minister to notify Brussels that the UK is leaving the EU, starting the two-year countdown to Brexit.Mrs May has said she will invoke Article 50, the legal mechanism for withdrawal, by the end of the month in what will be a "defining moment" for the country.

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